College Football Playoff

[kycarter88]

I’ve been wanting to have this discussion on other threads, but I’ll keep it in its own. I’d like to see what everyone else thinks we need to do to get in. I think 10-2 gets any big ten team in, including Indiana. Beat Washington, Nebraska, mich st., and Purdue and I think we are in as a 10-12 seed. 
 

I have the following teams in, in no particular order, as of today: osu, Georgia, bama, psu, Oregon, Miami, ND, IU, Texas, Clemson, Tennessee, Boise State. 

Edited October 6 by kycarter88

[Hoosierinbham]

4 hours ago, kycarter88 said:

I’ve been wanting to have this discussion on other threads, but I’ll keep it in its own. I’d like to see what everyone else thinks we need to do to get in. I think 10-2 gets any big ten team in, including Indiana. Beat Washington, Nebraska, mich st., and Purdue and I think we are in as a 10-12 seed. 
 

I have the following teams in, in no particular order, as of today: osu, Georgia, bama, psu, Oregon, Miami, ND, IU, ole miss, Clemson, Tennessee, Boise State. 

I agree 10-2 should do it. You could even throw Michigan in as a possible win at home. Each week until we play Purdue will be a progressively bigger challenge.  It's almost an ideal schedule for us. We just need to take care of business. 

Edited October 6 by Hoosierinbham

[kycarter88]

1 minute ago, Hoosierinbham said:

Texas?

I knew I was forgetting someone lol. Tried to do it without looking at the rankings! Yes, Texas! Taking out ole miss

[13th&Jackson]

15 minutes ago, kycarter88 said:

I’ve been wanting to have this discussion on other threads, but I’ll keep it in its own. I’d like to see what everyone else thinks we need to do to get in. I think 10-2 gets any big ten team in, including Indiana. Beat Washington, Nebraska, mich st., and Purdue and I think we are in as a 10-12 seed. 
 

I have the following teams in, in no particular order, as of today: osu, Georgia, bama, psu, Oregon, Miami, ND, IU, ole miss, Clemson, Tennessee, Boise State. 

You forgot a couple. The likely auto qualifiers (conference champs) at this point could be TX, OSU, Miami, Boise ST and BYU, IA ST or even TX Tech. Then I think GA, Bama, OR, PSU, Clemson, TN, Ole Miss

[kycarter88]

9 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

You forgot a couple. The likely auto qualifiers (conference champs) at this point could be TX, OSU, Miami, Boise ST and BYU, IA ST or even TX Tech. Then I think GA, Bama, OR, PSU, Clemson, TN, Ole Miss

Probably should have double checked the format. Was just going off what I could remember, but I appreciate you bringing that to my attention. I, myself, could care less about anyone else except IU. I was just wanting to see everyone’s thoughts on what we’d need to do to get a spot. 

[13th&Jackson]

1 minute ago, kycarter88 said:

Probably should have double checked the format. Was just going off what I could remember, but I appreciate you bringing that to my attention. I, myself, could care less about anyone else except IU. I was just wanting to see everyone’s thoughts on what we’d need to do to get a spot. 

Oh I agree, I think we could play our way in depending on how other teams do. At this point with MI slumping, I think IU probably needs to go 11-1 and not lose badly to OSU. 

[Kdug]

I think 11 wins or better and we’re a lock to make it. I think we probably make it with 10, but would depend on what other teams look like. This weekend helped the 10 win scenario with the upsets. Missouri, Michigan, and USC losing helped quite a bit since those teams were ranked 9th through 11th.

Edited October 6 by Kdug

[BobSaccamanno]

The eye test indicates we are a better football team than Michigan. But we’d still have to prove it.  

Washington and Nebraska will be huge games and tests.  

OSU, on the other hand, is just different.  They’ve got 6-7 first rounders mocked in this draft alone.  Physically, they look better than anyone else.   They look like pros with college boys bouncing off them. 

[kycarter88]

54 minutes ago, BobSaccamanno said:

The eye test indicates we are a better football team than Michigan. But we’d still have to prove it.  

Washington and Nebraska will be huge games and tests.  

OSU, on the other hand, is just different.  They’ve got 6-7 first rounders mocked in this draft alone.  Physically, they look better than anyone else.   They look like pros with college boys bouncing off them. 

Completely agree. Talking with my father last night, watching mich v wash., I couldn’t help but think about how we could handle both of those teams. And, we have them at home. The only team in the big 10 I think would be favored against us is OSU, and you never know, crazy things can happen when you’ve got a ton of confidence and moxie. PSU always flops in big moments, Oregon I don’t trust yet. We shall see, and it’ll be fun. 

Edited October 6 by kycarter88

[Kdug]

FWIW, FPI has IU ranked 14th and projects IU at 10.2 - 2.1 with a 51.5% chance to make the playoff. So FPI thinks it’s more likely than not that we make the playoff.

[Reacher]

1 hour ago, Kdug said:

FWIW, FPI has IU ranked 14th and projects IU at 10.2 - 2.1 with a 51.5% chance to make the playoff. So FPI thinks it’s more likely than not that we make the playoff.

Don't forget the 1.4% chance of winning it all! 

[13th&Jackson]

1 hour ago, Reacher said:

Don't forget the 1.4% chance of winning it all! 

 

[5fouls]

I we go 11-2, losing twice to OSU, it's going to be tough for us to get in, especially if we lose big in those games.  If we don't beat OSU in the regular season, it's honestly best that we don't make the Big Ten Championship.  Best case scenario in that event would be for Oregon to beat OSU next week, OSU beat Penn State, and an undefeated Oregon and one-loss OSU meet in the Big Ten Championship.  They both go to the playoff along with a 1 loss IU and 1 loss PSU.

That said, there are very possible scenarios where only three Big Ten teams get in.  If an undefeated Miami team loses in the ACC Championship? Bid stolen.  An undefeated Iowa State or BYU team loses in Big 12 Championship.  Another bid stolen.  That's 4.  Add the Group of 5 team and that only leaves 7 bids for the SEC and Big Ten.  In that scenario, that 4th Big Ten team may not get in.  And, a 2 loss IU team most certainly not.

BTW.  Our good friend Jerry Palm thinks so much of us, his latest projections have us in the Pinstripe Bowl against Pitt.  smh.  . 

 

 

[Kdug]

38 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I we go 11-2, losing twice to OSU, it's going to be tough for us to get in, especially if we lose big in those games.  If we don't beat OSU in the regular season, it's honestly best that we don't make the Big Ten Championship.  Best case scenario in that event would be for Oregon to beat OSU next week, OSU beat Penn State, and an undefeated Oregon and one-loss OSU meet in the Big Ten Championship.  They both go to the playoff along with a 1 loss IU and 1 loss PSU.

That said, there are very possible scenarios where only three Big Ten teams get in.  If an undefeated Miami team loses in the ACC Championship? Bid stolen.  An undefeated Iowa State or BYU team loses in Big 12 Championship.  Another bid stolen.  That's 4.  Add the Group of 5 team and that only leaves 7 bids for the SEC and Big Ten.  In that scenario, that 4th Big Ten team may not get in.  And, a 2 loss IU team most certainly not.

BTW.  Our good friend Jerry Palm thinks so much of us, his latest projections have us in the Pinstripe Bowl against Pitt.  smh.  . 

 

 

This is getting 5 steps ahead, but an 11-2 IU team with both loses being vs OSU is a lock for the playoffs. In order to make the big ten championship game in that scenario, either PSU, Oregon, and all other big ten teams would need 2+ conference losses, or they would have to have weaker conference strength of schedules than IU.

That’s not to mention that literally every team with a loss in the country would have a worse loss than IU.

[5fouls]

2 hours ago, Kdug said:

This is getting 5 steps ahead, but an 11-2 IU team with both loses being vs OSU is a lock for the playoffs. In order to make the big ten championship game in that scenario, either PSU, Oregon, and all other big ten teams would need 2+ conference losses, or they would have to have weaker conference strength of schedules than IU.

That’s not to mention that literally every team with a loss in the country would have a worse loss than IU.

Depends on how convincing those losses are.  Losing a couple of one score games doesnt hurt.  Suffer a couple of thorough butt kickings and the committee is going to be thinking if that 1 loss BYU or 1 Loss Pittsburgh team is better.

It's a numbers game and if the ACC, Big12, and Group of 5 combine for 5 playoff spots, a 2 loss IU team is competing against PSU, Oregon, and the 4th place SEC team.  Those are tough odds.

Edited October 7 by 5fouls

[Kdug]

6 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Depends on how convincing those losses are.  Losing a couple of one score games doesnt hurt.  Suffer a couple of thorough butt kickings and the committee is going to be thinking if that 1 loss BYU or 1 Loss Pittsburgh team is better.

It's a numbers game and if the ACC, Big12, and Group of 5 combine for 5 playoff spots, a 2 loss IU team is competing against PSU, Oregon, and the 4th place SEC team.  Those are tough odds.

I don’t think it’s very likely we would get our butts kicked by Ohio State twice. If we’re not good enough to be somewhat competitive vs them, I doubt we’ll be winning all our other games to get a second shot at them.

I guess I just have 0 worries about an 11 win IU team who finishes second in the big ten being left out. 10 wins is where those sort of scenarios are more realistic imo.