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What The Numbers Say


5fouls

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1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

Which was the better team last year? IU or Purdue?

Purdue was 0-2 vs IU so it’s obvious who had more talent?

IU has three  5 ️ players….2 NBA draft picks 

Two 5th year starters (each with more starts than the entire Purdue starting 5)

Morton?

Newman?

Gillis?

TKR?

Furst?

Jenkins?

Where are all the star players?

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2 minutes ago, Purdue7 said:

Purdue was 0-2 vs IU so it’s obvious who had more talent?

IU has three  5 ️ players….2 NBA draft picks 

Two 5th year starters (each with more starts than the entire Purdue starting 5)

Morton?

Newman?

Gillis?

TKR?

Furst?

Jenkins?

Where are all the star players?

That wasn't the question, but thanks for playing...

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12 hours ago, Drroogh said:

Totally agree with this, but it almost reads kind of like an admission of sorts? Beyond the numbers the eye test I see is this team keeps getting better! I’m still hopeful that this team come tournament time is one that nobody wants in their bracket!

i hope you're right, but i'm not 100% convinced that we keep getting better.  i do like 4 of our pieces a lot.  i do think we can be dangerous any given night.  

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12 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Going to steer the thread in a different direction.  He's not shooting well, struggling keeping players in front of him, but the most concerning thing for me about Cupps is that he's not setting up buckets for other guys.  His 'Assist %' is only ahead of Sparks and Gunn.  Yes, he's just a freshman, but the best way a freshman PG can make an impact is creating for your teammates.  The analytics :D indicate that he's not doing that.

 image.png.50210e6a1949d8ba7a6e90e494917904.png

 

as much as i want to root for the kid, he's definitely not a starting B1G guard.  clearly not in XJ's league from a talent standpoint.  that said, i still don't feel like X was playing the way we needed him to even before the injury.  

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I don't care what all these numbers say, or don't say. I don't think that we are going to win the Big Ten title...probably top 4-5. This likely gets us in the tourney, but I don't think that we will get to the Sweet 16. Hopefully CMW will have learned enough in his first three years to address schemes and lack of high level guards needed to do anything against the top teams in the country. I still think we are a long way from "being back". I am looking at this year as another so-so year with question marks a-plenty about the future. If the numbers mean the selection committee leaves us out of the tourney, then we don't deserve to be in the tourney. We are who we think we are.

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13 hours ago, IU Scott said:

According to most on here and the stats we aren't even going to make the tournament 

i really wouldn't want to bet either way.  seems like the best bet would be we finish around .500 in the conference.  win almost every home game and lose almost every away game?  if so, we are looking at 19-12 going into the B1G tourney.  would that be enough with our not so great SOS and poor showing pre conference?      

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14 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Regardless of that, I predict Braden Smith will have a better college career than Gabe Cupps.  

At this point, yes, I'd say Smith is the better player, at least on offense...I think both struggle on the defensive end...

14 hours ago, 5fouls said:

It's okay to admit that a player on another team is better than a player on our team.  

It's also ok to admit that we were a better team than Purdue was last year...

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1 hour ago, NCHoosier32 said:

i really wouldn't want to bet either way.  seems like the best bet would be we finish around .500 in the conference.  win almost every home game and lose almost every away game?  if so, we are looking at 19-12 going into the B1G tourney.  would that be enough with our not so great SOS and poor showing pre conference?      

I don't get people with such a negative outlook on this season. Have you guys watched other big ten teams because there aren't many good teams this year

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31 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

At this point, yes, I'd say Smith is the better player, at least on offense...I think both struggle on the defensive end...

It's also ok to admit that we were a better team than Purdue was last year...

Hard to argue 

IU got up for BIG games last year and took a nap at home vs NW on the road vs Penn state & Minnesota 

 

I honestly don’t understand how you can watch them (HS, AAU & college) and not see a huge difference in athleticism 

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26 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Which means a 12-8 5th place finish in conference is not going to mean that much.  

 

21 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Yeah, I don't understand why it's some big negative opinion to think that at this point IU has a lot of work to do to be a tournament lock on Selection Sunday?

That's why they play the games ;) 

I look at it like this, we either get in on the wins we have, or we don't...I know metrics plays a role, but if we win enough games, they aren't going to matter...

If we wind up like Rutgers last year, it'll be our own fault...

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1 minute ago, IUFLA said:

 

That's why they play the games ;) 

I look at it like this, we either get in on the wins we have, or we don't...I know metrics plays a role, but if we win enough games, they aren't going to matter...

If we wind up like Rutgers last year, it'll be our own fault...

Did yall just finally come to agreement?  @BGleas. I find no fault in this statement.   

Remember Ole @milehiiu a man of peaceful discourse and moderation.  

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11 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

 

That's why they play the games ;) 

I look at it like this, we either get in on the wins we have, or we don't...I know metrics plays a role, but if we win enough games, they aren't going to matter...

If we wind up like Rutgers last year, it'll be our own fault...

The difference is us "negative" folks are discussing how many of those wins we might need and where the line might be in terms of making the tournament. 

Because of our current metrics and how many teams the Big Ten might get this season, it's likely that it will require more conference wins that it has historically. 

We're discussing and debating what that number most likely will be. 

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17 hours ago, IU Scott said:

Well we took the #2 team to the wire after leading the whole game. I see our offense getting better and actually looking and making 3's. Well I have seen all the other big ten teams and see a lot of heatable teams. The games are played on the court and not on stats

Here's why I think the Kansas game is pure fool's gold (and why IU's metrics look so lousy)...

1.  Yes, IU can look great against high quality teams At HOME with a roaring capacity crowd behind them.

2.  BUT IU tends to get drubbed by decent to great teams at neutral sites/on the road.

3.  AND IU tends to play up or down to the level of competition they face. 

IU has proven that they have sufficient talent to compete with any team in the country (see Kansas game).  IU has also proven that they are very young and mentally soft (See UConn/Auburn games and a variety of underperforming wins).  When faced with reasonably talented/experienced teams away from the comfortable confines of the home court, IU demonstrates that they expect to lose and have little confidence or the mental toughness to get over the hump.  This is not a new problem, but with a younger team, it's more pronounced.  The vast majority of IU's problems are between the ears.

If IU goes 3-1 or 4-0 over the next four games, I'll be very surprised.  I love your optimism though.

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18 minutes ago, BGleas said:

The difference is us "negative" folks are discussing how many of those wins we might need and where the line might be in terms of making the tournament. 

Because of our current metrics and how many teams the Big Ten might get this season, it's likely that it will require more conference wins that it has historically. 

We're discussing and debating what that number most likely will be. 

That's fine...As I said, if we win enough, we don't have to worry about it...

I guess those are the 2 major points of contention on this board...How much metrics mean, and whether our our offense has "changed" or it's just residue of players understanding more, and being more comfortable in their roles...

For the second question, I think it's the latter...and I think it'll continue...Always seems to with younger players...

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4 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

Here's why I think the Kansas game is pure fool's gold (and why IU's metrics look so lousy)...

1.  Yes, IU can look great against high quality teams At HOME with a roaring capacity crowd behind them.

2.  BUT IU tends to get drubbed by decent to great teams at neutral sites/on the road.

3.  AND IU tends to play up or down to the level of competition they face. 

IU has proven that they have sufficient talent to compete with any team in the country (see Kansas game).  IU has also proven that they are very young and mentally soft (See UConn/Auburn games and a variety of underperforming wins).  When faced with reasonably talented/experienced teams away from the comfortable confines of the home court, IU demonstrates that they expect to lose and have little confidence or the mental toughness to get over the hump.  This is not a new problem, but with a younger team, it's more pronounced.  The vast majority of IU's problems are between the ears.

If IU goes 3-1 or 4-0 over the next four games, I'll be very surprised.  I love your optimism though.

I think you need to turn in your emoji!image.gif.cbe6bb9156121d1149bb2cdb8cff9c58.gif

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