Steubenhoosier Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, 5fouls said: Wisconsin, analytically sound, wins on the road, while Ohio State and Penn State, both analytically deficient, lose at home. Yawn 🥱 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 27 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said: Yawn 🥱 Is the yawn an indication that you don't care? If so, just don't partake in the discussion. Or, is it an indication you don't understand? In a nutshell, the story I linked earlier and subsequently quoted, provided evidence that Big Ten teams that played a certain way were WINNING this season, while teams that played the opposite way were LOSING this season. That theory proved itself once again with tonight's Big Ten results. I find it interesting that people are quick to dismiss a winning strategy just because it's based on something they are reluctant to embrace. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kdug Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 (edited) 4 hours ago, 5fouls said: https://www.cnhinews.com/indiana/sports/college_sports/article_8ba25fca-7e86-56df-8b70-1c0d66f3c930.html I believe this story was before last night's games. Story on analytics across Big Ten Conference teams. An excerpt from the article. It seems like he is focusing on offensive shot selection, in which case you’d basically just do an inverse of the % of shot attempts that are mid range. If that’s the case, here are the rankings with the % of FGA that haslametrics has classified as mid range: 1. Nebraska (24.54%) 2. Wisconsin (24.95%) 3. Illinois (25.31%) 4. Minnesota (26.03%) 5. Purdue (26.7%) 6. Michigan (27.17%) 7. Penn State (27.57%) 8. Maryland (28.01%) 9. Northwestern (29.04%) 10. Iowa (29.08%) 11. Rutgers (29.24%) 12. IU (31.18%) 13. Michigan State (33.86%) 14. Ohio State (34.69%) Edited January 11 by Kdug 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steubenhoosier Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, 5fouls said: Is the yawn an indication that you don't care? If so, just don't partake in the discussion. Or, is it an indication you don't understand? In a nutshell, the story I linked earlier and subsequently quoted, provided evidence that Big Ten teams that played a certain way were WINNING this season, while teams that played the opposite way were LOSING this season. That theory proved itself once again with tonight's Big Ten results. I find it interesting that people are quick to dismiss a winning strategy just because it's based on something they are reluctant to embrace. Or, yawn that this is a tired discussion. Not that I don’t care, but more that it’s an over analyzed conversation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 7 hours ago, Kdug said: It seems like he is focusing on offensive shot selection, in which case you’d basically just do an inverse of the % of shot attempts that are mid range. If that’s the case, here are the rankings with the % of FGA that haslametrics has classified as mid range: 1. Nebraska (24.54%) 2. Wisconsin (24.95%) 3. Illinois (25.31%) 4. Minnesota (26.03%) 5. Purdue (26.7%) 6. Michigan (27.17%) 7. Penn State (27.57%) 8. Maryland (28.01%) 9. Northwestern (29.04%) 10. Iowa (29.08%) 11. Rutgers (29.24%) 12. IU (31.18%) 13. Michigan State (33.86%) 14. Ohio State (34.69%) And, the numbers you provide support the theory by showing that the Top 5 on your list are all in the upper half of the league standings, while 4 of the 5 with the highest percentage of mid-range shots are in the bottom half of the league standings (with IU being the exception). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUCrazy2 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 13 minutes ago, 5fouls said: And, the numbers you provide support the theory by showing that the Top 5 on your list are all in the upper half of the league standings, while 4 of the 5 with the highest percentage of mid-range shots are in the bottom half of the league standings (with IU being the exception). And we are likely the exception because we have only played one of the teams above us so far. The next few games are going to make or break the season. I am of the opinion that it is probably already over but there are still games to play for the eternal optimists. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUskim Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 3 hours ago, 5fouls said: And, the numbers you provide support the theory by showing that the Top 5 on your list are all in the upper half of the league standings, while 4 of the 5 with the highest percentage of mid-range shots are in the bottom half of the league standings (with IU being the exception). Those dang badgers. Just when you think they are down here they are leading the league again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post bluegrassIU Posted January 11 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 11 10 hours ago, Steubenhoosier said: Or, yawn that this is a tired discussion. Not that I don’t care, but more that it’s an over analyzed conversation Then just stay out of the dang thread. It's labeled as a analytics thread. Don't click the dang thing. Why come crap in somebody's thread?? Just stay out of it. 10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted January 13 Author Report Share Posted January 13 Michigan State being ranked ahead of Kansas in KenPom doesn't pass the smell test. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kdug Posted January 13 Report Share Posted January 13 (edited) 1 hour ago, 5fouls said: Michigan State being ranked ahead of Kansas in KenPom doesn't pass the smell test. It makes sense if you look at the game by game results. MSU doesn’t have any close wins, and only two of their wins are less than a 20 point margin. Most of MSU’s losses are close games vs good teams as well. Kansas has 7 single digit margin of victory wins. One of them being home vs EIU, who is a sub 300 team. Another at home vs a mediocre Missouri team. Ironically the other would be vs IU, since the metrics hate us. MSU’s bad performances would be a close home loss vs JMU, thought JMU is better than what most thought at the time of the loss. A double digit home loss vs Wisconsin, and a double digit road loss vs Northwestern. Edited January 13 by Kdug Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceDouglas Posted January 13 Report Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, 5fouls said: Michigan State being ranked ahead of Kansas in KenPom doesn't pass the smell test. T-Rank has it the same with a much bigger gap https://barttorvik.com/trank.php# Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 The loss to PSU drops us to 99 on KenPom from 88. We are now predicted to lose all of our remaining games, but with the averages are projected to finish 16-15. Our two best shots at a win per KenPom are Northwestern and Nebraska, both at home. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaHoosierFan Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 (edited) 7 hours ago, KoB2011 said: The loss to PSU drops us to 99 on KenPom from 88. We are now predicted to lose all of our remaining games, but with the averages are projected to finish 16-15. Our two best shots at a win per KenPom are Northwestern and Nebraska, both at home. Not likely to happen, we're going to probably go 500 over the remaining but still a big time off Edited February 4 by IowaHoosierFan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted February 4 Report Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, IowaHoosierFan said: Not likely to happen, we're going to probably got 500 over the remaining but still a bit time off I don’t think we are going .500 over the remaining. I don’t think we have any games left we can safely say we will win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted February 4 Report Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, KoB2011 said: I don’t think we are going .500 over the remaining. I don’t think we have any games left we can safely say we will win. Not if we couldn't win today 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaHoosierFan Posted February 4 Report Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, KoB2011 said: I don’t think we are going .500 over the remaining. I don’t think we have any games left we can safely say we will win. This team is bipolar. We're going to win some we don't expect and lose other we should. Been the same for about 9 years now. Zero consistency! Which is why i expect .500 over the remainder of the season. Also wouldn't surprise me to lose every game or win every game until the B1G Tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU_Realist Posted February 4 Report Share Posted February 4 7 hours ago, KoB2011 said: The loss to PSU drops us to 99 on KenPom from 88. We are now predicted to lose all of our remaining games, but with the averages are projected to finish 16-15. Our two best shots at a win per KenPom are Northwestern and Nebraska, both at home. We are 101 now. Worst Indiana team since Crean’s third year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted February 4 Report Share Posted February 4 13 minutes ago, IU_Realist said: We are 101 now. Worst Indiana team since Crean’s third year. Not that it really matters, but that team was 82. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU_Realist Posted February 4 Report Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, KoB2011 said: Not that it really matters, but that team was 82. I didn’t want Woodson in the beginning because he was a bad NBA coach. His offense and defense is just so bad to watch. I don’t understand how anyone can think anything he does is a positive. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted February 4 Report Share Posted February 4 22 minutes ago, IU_Realist said: I didn’t want Woodson in the beginning because he was a bad NBA coach. His offense and defense is just so bad to watch. I don’t understand how anyone can think anything he does is a positive. Yeah I wasn’t excited. I did like some of the initial moves and held out hope that he was doing his best to optimize what he had the first couple years, but it’s pretty clear this is just how he wants to play. Just isn’t good enough IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU_Realist Posted February 4 Report Share Posted February 4 8 minutes ago, KoB2011 said: Yeah I wasn’t excited. I did like some of the initial moves and held out hope that he was doing his best to optimize what he had the first couple years, but it’s pretty clear this is just how he wants to play. Just isn’t good enough IMO. What guard would want to play for a team that doesn’t do much for them in relation to movement and is predominately running most things through the post. The lack of movement in our offense is atrocious. This has been the case even when we had TJD. Offensive numbers scream bad. I don’t see this getting fixed during the portal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHoosier32 Posted February 4 Report Share Posted February 4 8 hours ago, IU_Realist said: I didn’t want Woodson in the beginning because he was a bad NBA coach. His offense and defense is just so bad to watch. I don’t understand how anyone can think anything he does is a positive. i honestly didn't understand why anyone would be excited by a guy who had 0 college coaching experience and was pretty much a lifetime NBA assistant. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 KenPom has fallen to 102. Lost 4 of the last 5 at home, by an average of 13.5 points. KenPom now projects us to finish with a losing record. Our best remaining chance to win is 33% at PSU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kyhoosier29 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 4 hours ago, KoB2011 said: KenPom has fallen to 102. Lost 4 of the last 5 at home, by an average of 13.5 points. KenPom now projects us to finish with a losing record. Our best remaining chance to win is 33% at PSU. That’s not happening! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indykev Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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