IUBB '24/‘25

[Hoosier4Life53]

It’s hard to believe we’re less than a month away from the start of the season, and I haven’t  been this excited since the 2012-13 team took the floor with Zeller, Watford, Oladipo, Hulls and Ferrell. Plus the football team is 6-0, and looks like a legit top 10 team….how  good is that?

[94hoosier]

41 minutes ago, Hoosier4Life53 said:

It’s hard to believe we’re less than a month away from the start of the season, and I haven’t  been this excited since the 2012-13 team took the floor with Zeller, Watford, Oladipo, Hulls and Ferrell. Plus the football team is 6-0, and looks like a legit top 10 team….how  good is that?

With all the complaining on the recruiting forum you would think we sky is falling. But this team is the most talented team we have had in 10 years. Should be a fun season. There will be ups and downs but this team has a chance to something’s that haven’t been done in 10 to 20 years.   Exciting times for Hoosier athletics. Not just basketball 

[IUFLA]

Stephen Bardo interviews Coach Woodson per @The Daily Hoosier

Nothing earth shaking, but reiterates a lot of points that have been made... 

Edited October 12 by IUFLA

[bluegrassIU]

On 10/9/2024 at 12:59 PM, btownqb said:

must read 

 

As soon as Ballo gets a twisted ankle from landing on somebody's foot, it's still gonna be Cliff's fault.

[Maedhros]

KenPom preseason rankings are out. From Dylan Burkhardt, here's a screenshot of the Big Ten:

 

FWIW, I've been out on Ken the last few years now. Feels more and more like his rankings don't match what I see on the court, or there's too much noise. Not that he isn't still useful, but like Lunardi, maybe he was just first and others are doing it better now.

I'm also curious to know how much of last year is included in these rankings, a factor which is probably anachronistic in this portal era of high end transfers.

[Kdug]

18 minutes ago, Maedhros said:

KenPom preseason rankings are out. From Dylan Burkhardt, here's a screenshot of the Big Ten:

 

FWIW, I've been out on Ken the last few years now. Feels more and more like his rankings don't match what I see on the court, or there's too much noise. Not that he isn't still useful, but like Lunardi, maybe he was just first and others are doing it better now.

I'm also curious to know how much of last year is included in these rankings, a factor which is probably anachronistic in this portal era of high end transfers.

Just curious, who do you think is doing these types of rankings better? Torvik is another well known one, and he has IU ranked similarly at 30th. Evan Miya is the newest one, and he likes IU more than the others at 17th.

The thing is, as much as I’d like to dispute these, we’ve underperformed these preseason rankings just about every year since Archie started. So if anything, they’ve had a pro-IU bias that hasn’t been realized in recent years.

[Maedhros]

19 minutes ago, Kdug said:

Just curious, who do you think is doing these types of rankings better? Torvik is another well known one, and he has IU ranked similarly at 30th. Evan Miya is the newest one, and he likes IU more than the others at 17th.

The thing is, as much as I’d like to dispute these, we’ve underperformed these preseason rankings just about every year since Archie started. So if anything, they’ve had a pro-IU bias that hasn’t been realized in recent years.

I do like Torvik better. Admittedly that may be a bias because I like the UI and tools available on his website. I'm not all that familiar with EvanMiya yet, but look forward to tracking his numbers this season.

[BruceDouglas]

1 hour ago, Maedhros said:

KenPom preseason rankings are out. From Dylan Burkhardt, here's a screenshot of the Big Ten:

 

FWIW, I've been out on Ken the last few years now. Feels more and more like his rankings don't match what I see on the court, or there's too much noise. Not that he isn't still useful, but like Lunardi, maybe he was just first and others are doing it better now.

I'm also curious to know how much of last year is included in these rankings, a factor which is probably anachronistic in this portal era of high end transfers.

He actually uses the past 5 seasons.

As far as the guts of my system, I include the last five seasons of team data and two seasons of conference data (using the current season’s membership), plus returning production, transfers, and notable freshmen, along with coaching changes. Independent forecasts are made for offense and defense.

More here (from last year) if you're interested:

https://kenpom.substack.com/p/preseason-ratings-are-live?utm_source=publication-search

Edited October 14 by BruceDouglas

[Kdug]

1 hour ago, Maedhros said:

I do like Torvik better. Admittedly that may be a bias because I like the UI and tools available on his website. I'm not all that familiar with EvanMiya yet, but look forward to tracking his numbers this season.

I’m a Torvik fan as well, so I agree with you there. It also helps that his is free vs the others you have to pay for.

I’m not as familiar with EvanMiya either, but his algorithm seems to be the most bullish on IU this season. Would be curious to understand how his methodology differs from Torvik/Kenpom.

[Drroogh]

Have a statistics book, not far in on a page all by itself is this lesson to be learned! ‘Statistics are like a girl in a bikini, they show a lot but they don’t show everything!’ Statistics about this season when there are actually no statistics are just numbers!

[IUJoe]

38 minutes ago, Drroogh said:

Statistics about this season when there are actually no statistics are just numbers!

This is the important thing to remember about the computer ratings.  As someone who produces them, I can tell you that most of the formulas are the same.  The differences in rankings are due to the inputs into the formula.  Right now, all the inputs are human estimates and data from previous seasons (in statistics, these are called "Bayesian factors"), because no games have been played yet this season.  For the first couple months or so of the season, they will still include a mixture of this season's games with the Bayesian factors.  The exception to that is the NET, which always includes only current season data.  Of course, that causes some wacky rankings and big fluctuations from day-to-day early in the season, because there isn't as much data.  As the season goes further along, you'll notice KenPom and the NET becoming more and more alike as the NET has more data and KenPom (and Torvik, etc.) removes the Bayesian factors.   

[Purdue7]

Not sure it proves anything since these are all basketball powers.  Duke or Arizona missing?

[dbmhoosier]

4 hours ago, Kdug said:

Just curious, who do you think is doing these types of rankings better? Torvik is another well known one, and he has IU ranked similarly at 30th. Evan Miya is the newest one, and he likes IU more than the others at 17th.

The thing is, as much as I’d like to dispute these, we’ve underperformed these preseason rankings just about every year since Archie started. So if anything, they’ve had a pro-IU bias that hasn’t been realized in recent years.

Look at what Cav posted on Rivals.  🥺

 

 

[tdhoosier]

I don’t think Kenpom is supposed to be used for predictive measures in the preseason. Even he’d tell you himself that the accuracy of his rankings hones in around early January 

[IUFLA]

IU #17 in initial AP Poll

Only 4 Big 10 teams (Purdue #14, UCLA #22, Rutgers #25)

1. Kansas
2. Alabama
3. UConn
4. Houston
5. Iowa State
6. Gonzaga 
7. Duke
8. Baylor
9. UNC
10. Arizona
11. Auburn
12. Tennessee
13. Texas A&M
14. Purdue
15. Creighton
16. Arkansas
17. Indiana
18. Marquette
19. Texas
20. Cincinnati
21. Florida
22. UCLA
23. Kentucky
24. Ole Miss
25. Rutgers

Others receiving votes:
Illinois 92, St. John's 91, Xavier 73, Texas Tech 58, Wake Forest 37, Kansas St 30, Michigan St. 29, Ohio St. 29, Michigan 19, BYU 14, Oregon 12, McNeese St. 11, Miami 11, Boise St. 9, Saint Louis 9, Clemson 9, Providence 9, Mississippi St. 6, VCU 6, Wisconsin 5, Saint Mary's 5, Louisville 4, UAB 4, Ark Little Rock 3, Grand Canyon 3, Arizona St 2, San Diego St. 2, Princeton 2, High Point 1, Maryland 1.

Edited October 14 by IUFLA

[Drroogh]

3 hours ago, IUFLA said:

IU #17 in initial AP Poll

Only 4 Big 10 teams (Purdue #14, UCLA #22, Rutgers #25)

1. Kansas
2. Alabama
3. UConn
4. Houston
5. Iowa State
6. Gonzaga 
7. Duke
8. Baylor
9. UNC
10. Arizona
11. Auburn
12. Tennessee
13. Texas A&M
14. Purdue
15. Creighton
16. Arkansas
17. Indiana
18. Marquette
19. Texas
20. Cincinnati
21. Florida
22. UCLA
23. Kentucky
24. Ole Miss
25. Rutgers

Others receiving votes:
Illinois 92, St. John's 91, Xavier 73, Texas Tech 58, Wake Forest 37, Kansas St 30, Michigan St. 29, Ohio St. 29, Michigan 19, BYU 14, Oregon 12, McNeese St. 11, Miami 11, Boise St. 9, Saint Louis 9, Clemson 9, Providence 9, Mississippi St. 6, VCU 6, Wisconsin 5, Saint Mary's 5, Louisville 4, UAB 4, Ark Little Rock 3, Grand Canyon 3, Arizona St 2, San Diego St. 2, Princeton 2, High Point 1, Maryland 1.

9 SEC in the top 25. Noticed the switch a few years ago when my boss asked why I didn’t let him know Auburn was good? Told him since he didn’t care the year before I figured he didn’t care now. A pity that the SEC bag men realized they could make jack in basketball as well as football, but at least now with NIL things will even out!

[Kdug]

6 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

I don’t think Kenpom is supposed to be used for predictive measures in the preseason. Even he’d tell you himself that the accuracy of his rankings hones in around early January 

I think every preseason ranking is inherently going to be less accurate than rankings in January - both computer and human rankings. That’s probably even more true today with all the roster turnover vs 20 years ago.

That being said, kenpom early season game projections tend to lineup rather closely to Vegas lines. To me that’s a sign that they’re as good as any ranking out there.

[Maedhros]

Seems we have some evidence now that the staff is investing in modernizing their approach.

 

 

[Reacher]

https://iuhoosiers.com/news/2024/10/16/mens-basketball-speed-thrills-myles-rice-set-to-push-hoosier-pace

[BobSaccamanno]

1 hour ago, Reacher said:

https://iuhoosiers.com/news/2024/10/16/mens-basketball-speed-thrills-myles-rice-set-to-push-hoosier-pace

Rice is my favorite new player.  Really like his game.  He’s got savvy, which we really need.  Watch him change speeds, very crafty.  He can get the defender on his hip.  This kid is a winning player and the best part is the ball will be in his hands.  The one issue is finishing. He needs to get stronger in the lane so we will see about that.  

[Parakeet Jones]

Hoosier Hysteria is tonight. There is going to be a scrimmage for the first time in I believe a couple of years. You can’t learn much if anything from those, but seeing the newcomers in action will be nice. 

[dwtaylor1055]

12 minutes ago, Parakeet Jones said:

Hoosier Hysteria is tonight. There is going to be a scrimmage for the first time in I believe a couple of years. You can’t learn much if anything from those, but seeing the newcomers in action will be nice. 

seeing how they interact with each other and some chemistry will be nice.  

[Inequality]

1 hour ago, Parakeet Jones said:

Hoosier Hysteria is tonight. There is going to be a scrimmage for the first time in I believe a couple of years. You can’t learn much if anything from those, but seeing the newcomers in action will be nice. 

Headed there soon. Have a great time!

[Parakeet Jones]

39 minutes ago, Inequality said:

Headed there soon. Have a great time!

I won’t get there until about the time the doors open. You have a great time as well. 

[IUFLA]

2 hours ago, Parakeet Jones said:

Hoosier Hysteria is tonight. There is going to be a scrimmage for the first time in I believe a couple of years. You can’t learn much if anything from those, but seeing the newcomers in action will be nice. 

 

1 hour ago, Inequality said:

Headed there soon. Have a great time!

I hope you both have a great time...

At the end of the day, we're all Hoosier fans...