5fouls

12 minutes ago, rd726 said:

 I haven’t called a positive test in quite awhile. Go from calling 30-45 a day to this.  Policies at the hospital getting less strict every day too. It doesn’t seem like we are handing out tests like candy anymore either so I guess take that for whatever it is. 

  

Any insight into how someone that tests positive drops off the 'Active Case' list (other than dying)?

2 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Could not tell you but I have not retested.  I also was getting a phone call one a week from our health department but have not heard from them the last two weeks.

So, you still may be considered an 'Active' case unless they have a specific process to drop you off the list after a certain amount of time even though you have not been retested.  But, since you were not specifically told you were no longer going to be monitored, it begs the question as to how accurate the 'active' case number is.

When 'Total Cases' is reported as an indicator of where we stand today with Coronavirus, turn the other way.  That number is meaningless when it comes to seeing where we are at on this particular date.  The reason?  Just as I will never be 18 years of age again (or 25, or 37, or 48), the total number of cases for a particular country, state, county, etc. will never go down.  It will continue to go up until the end of time.  You want to look at things in this order:

• Number of Daily Deaths (some inflation in numbers, but the best measure of the current danger of the disease)
• Daily New Cases (dependent on testing and there is no testing consistency)
• Daily Number of Recoveries (as I questioned in post above, is the reporting on this accurate)
• Active Cases (totally dependent on accurate reporting of three items above it)
• Do you see the same old guy at the grocery 6 weeks in a row without a mask
• A bunch of other things
• A bunch more things
• The flip of a coin
• Total Cases

Question for the board, because I don't know.  @IU Scott may know since he had the virus.  How does someone that recovers from the virus drop off the 'Active Case' list?  For example, if I get the virus, become asymptomatic after 2-3 weeks, what do I need to do to drop off the list?  I have to do something, don't I?  If I simply sit and home and not tell anyone, logic would tell me that I would be on the list indefinitely.  5 years from now, would I still be an active case?

My basis for the question is whether that could be a factor in why active cases continue to go up even though new cases are going down.  That's a significant distinction whether we want to admit it or not.   

2 minutes ago, jv1972iu said:

The virus is laughing at this "discussion" .  It's alive and well.  It doesn't care about trends.

No.  The virus is laughing at China's 'trends', and Russia's overall numbers, and people that have Covid but die of late stage inoperable cancer getting counted as a Covid death.  Those are things that the virus laughs at.  

4 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

The link immediately above the state of Texas is Harris County and the surrounding counties of Houston. I don't know why you want to argue this. I really don't. It's like you want to dig your head in the sand. 

Regardless, instead of just saying your wrong (though I think you pretty clearly are) that's not my point. Again, I hope you don't actually think COVID will just happily go down/away when there's obviously no vaccine or remedy yet, and people go back to social gathering. If you do, I have a bridge to sell you in New York. But I trust you don't, because that would be complete nonsense. 

I edited my comment to address the first graph.

And, c'mon.  Can we have a good discussion/debate without getting condescending?  I'm not trying to change your mind, and I'm not saying Covid is going away.  I do think it is trending down, albeit much slower than I expected it would when summer hit.  And, yes, masks, social distancing, etc. contributed a lot to those numbers going down.  

5 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Nope. See the links I just posted above.

Your link shows a graph for the entire state of Texas.  Mine was specific to Harris County.  That said, if the Department of Health told me the number was 10 and the Houston Chronicle told me it was 20, I would run with the number provided by the Department of Health.  

Edit:  Your other graph is total cases, not new ones.  And, I already explained how that can be misleading because of the length of tim it takes to recover.  

6 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Yes they are. There are numerous papers, sites etc. reporting increased cases including here in Houston. Do you really buy into no increased cases? Geesh.

I think one thing that can be very misleading is looking at 'active' cases instead of new cases.  According to the official numbers for Harris County, Texas, new cases peaked in mid-May (check out the graph in link). Most of those cases would still be considered active because they have not cycled through the normal recovery period.  However, the number of daily new cases since May 19th has trended down.  Once that spike in mid May cycles through, it's quite likely that total cases will begin to go down as well (pending the impacts of re-opening).  

https://publichealth.harriscountytx.gov/Resources/2019-Novel-Coronavirus

3 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

OK. I don't buy into the 'fake news' stuff (and it's largely a politically driven message, so let's not go there), and I don't agree with your take on the media fudging numbers, it's pretty clear the numbers are going back up (in whatever degree), which, of course, should be expected as the rules on stay home/work safe, social distancing, etc. are being relaxed or given mixed messages from state and local governments/counties/cities and people start gathering again.

But I understand and agree with what I think your overall point is, that the news should not be  sensationalizing COVID, you know, for ratings, etc. Unfortunately, we live now in this silly 24-7 news cycle world where news is now often not news but entertainment.

Anyway, I was one who really questioned this reaction to COVID at the beginning. I did that pretty strongly. I was wrong. COVID is serious. I'm still very concerned about the long-term economic fallout (and immediate losses of jobs etc.), and I do want people getting back to work and hello, basketball, but man we need to do this right.

I wear a mask every time I go out, I 'social distance,' and our firm has all kinds of measures in place for when we are back in office (mostly still working remotely). We have dividers up between secretarial stations, we deep clean the offices regularly, anyone in the hall or a common area has to be wearing a mask, etc. But meanwhile I stop at my local coffee shop to grab a coffee and a whole bunch of people, every day, are now sitting around tables outside with no masks on. It's really stupid. I hope we get to a vaccine or something similar sooner rather than later.

I never said CNN fudged numbers, because they did not provide any.  Why have a shrill headline that alludes to a something numeric and then not provide actual numbers to support the argument?  Instead of numbers, let's say they fudged words.  

One of the workers at the polling place I went to today did not have a mask.  Younger guy.  I wanted to punch him in the face, thinking about how many people he could have exposed today if he had the virus.  

9 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Fouls, just a question. Why are you arguing, vociferously, that there isn't any kind of "spike" (however you want to define it), when things are opening back up, and nothing has changed? I'm not trying to be argumentative here (though admittedly, it's in my nature). I really don't get it. You know nothing has changed.

There is no vaccine. There is absolutely nothing -- nada, nothing, o, however you want to define it -- to indicate COVID has gone away. I mean, no one will say otherwise, because it's obvious fact. Rather, by ALL accounts, the social distancing, mask wearing etc. has reduced what otherwise would've been a worse situation.

But now things are opening back up, a whole bunch of people just aren't wearing masks, people are starting to gather in groups again (without getting into the protests). Of course the rate of COVID spread is going to go back up. Why would you think otherwise, or, really, why would you argue against any kind of spike? I don't get it.

Edit -- so as I was posting this you posted your point is to lambaste the media, for what you believe to be "flaming." OK. I disagree with your take (fwiw), but I still don't get the need to argue against any kind of spike when I think clearly cases are going to increase again until a vaccine is developed or something else happens to change the dynamic of this virus. It seems really counterproductive to me.

When/If we get the next spike, then it's fair game to talk about it.  But, it's not spiking in DC right now, the numbers say otherwise.  It's fine if you don't agree with me calling out the media, but wouldn't the world be a better place without fake news?

As far as things opening up, hey I hear you.  I wear a mask every time I go out.  I get mad at people that aren't.  I carry hand sanitizer in the car.  I wash my hands multiple times an hour when I'm awake.  When I voted in the Indiana primary today, I stayed 6 feet away from others at the poll.  I am in no way promoting that we start having huge public orgies.  All I am asking is that the media give me a fair representation of what is going on so I don't have to figure it out for myself.  

Oh, and according to the DC Department of Health, the number of cases 'spiked' again today, going from 56 cases yesterday to 29 today.

8 minutes ago, jv1972iu said:

So, I didn't go back beyond this page regarding this subject on the trends/numbers.  Sorry.  I'm trying to see the point you guys are discussing.  What is it?  And don't get political.   😊

My point all along is that the media is flaming the COVID story.  Multiple times I have questioned on here how/why they come up with these alarming headlines that are at best misleading and at worst right down false.  Yesterday's headline by CNN that claimed DC cases were spiking had no supporting statistics in the story.  I mean, absolutely, nothing.  So, I decided I would look at it myself.  Not only do I not see a spike, I see a clear trend of cases decreasing.  Not every day.  There are blips here and there.  But, the trend is clearly going down, not spiking.  So, I chose to call CNN out in the thread, as I have with other media outlets previously.

As far as where @Brass Cannon is getting his numbers, I'm not sure.  I have checked the University of Washington numbers that the government uses, the New York Times, and The DC Department of Health.  I can't find the numbers he is reporting anywhere.  

District of Columbia COVID19 cases as reported by the New York Times today.  

Look at the graphing in the article.  Everything is trending down.  You can even hover and get the exact number for a day, Your numbers are simply not there.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/washington-dc-coronavirus-cases.html

1 minute ago, Brass Cannon said:

If something doubles overnight it most assuredly is a spike?  

In this case 3 day average about quadrupled. 

72, 86, 46

followed by 

199, 211, 226

Is a huge spike. 
 

You changing the argument. You criticized an article for being wrong. When in fact your own source says you just don’t know what you are talking about. 

Where are your numbers coming from?

More on 'spiking',  Indiana went from less than 300 new cases and 9 deaths yesterday to over 400 new cases and 55  46 deaths today.  However, you can't look at that and scream "SPIKE'.  Mondays are historically the lowest number of the week because many counties do not tabulate totals on Sunday, which is what gets reported on Monday.  Again, the 7, 14, and monthly trends show that the number of cases and deaths in Indiana are trending down.  Not a steep dip, but trending down nonetheless.  

Edit:  Just noticed the state's official death tally for today is 46.  Some of the COVID reporting sites like to include 'possible' deaths in the numbers, and the 55 I mentioned above comes from there.  For further comparison, the Indiana Department of health reports 2,022 total deaths, while the other site is reporting 2,197.  

1 hour ago, Brass Cannon said:

Spikes are determined by comparing the data to the previous iterations.  You appear to be comparing it to a peak. 

Okay.  I went for the general trend, but if you want to argue that, on May 28th, or only 3 days before yesterday, the number was 86. so again there is no 'spike'  The bottom line is if there are 55 cases on Monday and 56 cases on Tuesday, the media is going to call Tuesday a spike.  The 7 day, 14 day, and one month trends show cases going down in DC  The media simply wants to influence gullible people that only read headlines and nothing else.     

Headline on CNN states 'Coronavirus cases SPIKE in DC'!.  I looked it up.  DC reported 56 new cases today.  One month ago, on May 1st, DC reported 335 new cases.  It's unbelievable the lengths the press will go to in order to misinform.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/district-of-columbia

I was just looking at Spain's trends and noticed on May 25th that they removed 1,915 deaths from their books.  Double counting?  Change in criteria?  In any event, much like Italy, this thing is definitely on the decline in Spain.  

 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Just now, Lostin76 said:

Man, Brazil and Russia are coming on strong in the race to have the second most cases and deaths*. No shocker there.

*The number of deaths in Russia? 😂

 

I'll give Russia this.  Their numbers are probably closer to being accurate than China's.  

As of today, respirator usage related to Covid-19 in Indiana is only at 4.8% of available machines.  the ICU bed percentage is 14.5% of available beds.

2 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

You know, largely because of continuing mixed messages from government/leadership, all kinds of people are now going around without masks -- to restaurants, to work, to beaches, etc. The protests in this context? Can we keep that discussion in its thread? Let's not turn this thread into that one.

Let's not forget that nothing has really changed. The virus continues to spike here and there including in areas that are just opening things back up without requiring/enforcing continued social distancing and masks. There's really no reason -- none -- to be mingling in public now, any public setting, without wearing a mask. Just do the basic sensible thing and wear a mask. Please.

I think you are improperly using the word 'spike'.  i don't know of any location in the U.S. that has a significant percentage of more cases now than it did 3-4 weeks ago, unless you're talking about a random county in Montana that had 2 cases then and has 3 now, for a 50% increase..  Numbers may be slightly up in other places, but testing has increased significantly as well, so that explains a lot in regards to those locations.  

That said, are the numbers declining as much as we hoped they would as the weather warms up?  No, they are not.  Should people still take precautions, social distance, wear masks, etc.?  Absolutely.  But, every headline I see online about cases 'spiking' has no factual basis once you click the link and read the corresponding story.  

Now, in Brazil, the virus is spiking at an alarming rate..  Not in the U.S. though. 

1 hour ago, Reacher said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus-idUSKBN2370OQ

"The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday."

Very good news if source is legitimate.  Thanks for sharing.  

hopefully, the U.S. trends will follow suit over the next few weeks. 

We need more Louis Armstrong right now.

Overhead view 6 hours after I replaced the dripping faucet in my master bath.

56 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

But if you are concerned about contamination via touch, I think I'd rather have an asymptomatic person touch their face mask and then test the ripeness of an avocado that I ultimately pick out, rather than coughing directly on the avocado. (a completely an unscientific assumption on my part 😀) 

Damn avocados.  You can't trust them.  Now, canned pineapple.  There's a fruit you can trust.